📊 How to Read the Recommendations Table

What you’re looking at: each row is a bet the model likes. Use EV% to judge value and Model Prob to judge confidence.

Field Definitions

Field	Meaning	How to Use It
Game	Matchup (home team listed second).	Scan for all bets tied to a single game.
Market	ML (moneyline), Spread, or Total.	ML = who wins; Spread = margin; Total = combined points.
Side	Bet direction.	“Home/Away” for ML/Spread, “Over/Under” for Total.
Model Prob	Model’s probability that the bet wins.	≥60% is typically strong.
Book Odds	Sportsbook price.	Determines payout; shown in American odds.
Implied Prob	Probability implied by the book odds.	For American odds: `+X → 100/(X+100)`, `-X → \|X\|/(\|X\|+100)`
Edge %	Model vs. market gap.	`Edge = ModelProb − ImpliedProb` (percentage points).
EV %	Expected return per dollar staked.	Convert American odds to decimal `d`: `A>0 → d = 1 + A/100`, `A<0 → d = 1 + 100/\|A\|` Then `EV% = 100 × (ModelProb × d − 1)`.
Stake $	Suggested bet size (Kelly/fractional).	Use as a cap; don’t exceed bankroll limits.
Line	Spread or total being bet.	Ex: `-3.5`, `+2.5`, `o46.5`, `u41`.
Book	Which sportsbook provided the price.	Where to place the bet to match the edge.

Signal	What It Means	Action
High EV (≥5%) + High Prob (≥60%)	Strong value and confidence.	Bet-worthy if lines are current.
Moderate EV (2–4%)	Edge exists but smaller.	Consider when confidence ≥55%.
Low EV (<2%)	Likely neutral after juice.	Monitor for better price.
Negative EV	Market priced better than model.	Skip or fade.

Inputs
Market: ML | Odds: +115
Model Prob: 0.58 (58%)
Implied Prob: 100/(115+100)=0.465 (46.5%)

Outputs
Edge %: 0.58 − 0.465 = +0.115 (+11.5 pts)
Decimal odds: 1 + 115/100 = 2.15
EV %: (0.58 × 2.15 − 1) × 100 = +24.7%

Rule of Thumb: prioritize rows with both higher EV% and strong Model Prob. Use Stake $ as an upper bound, not a mandate.